Causal Bayesian networks in assessments of wildfire risks: opportunities for ecological risk assessment and management
Citation:
Barron, M., M. Thompson, AND J. Carriger. Causal Bayesian networks in assessments of wildfire risks: opportunities for ecological risk assessment and management. Presented at 9th International Fire Ecology and Management Congress, Miramar Beach, FL, November 30 - December 04, 2021.
Impact/Purpose:
The purpose of this work is to evaluate and communicate opportunities to use causal assessment tools to quantify linkages between wildfires and impacts on ecological systems. Ladders of causation are explored and opportunities for applying casual assessment tools such as Bayesnian Networks (BN) are discussed, which to date have had only limited application in the evaluatoin of wildfire risks to ecological systems. The impact of this work is that development and application of BNs may provide more quantitative assessments of risks to ecological systems, more informed predictive models, and a better understanding of linkages that may ultimately provide for greater environmental protection and more informed environmental preparedness and response.
Description:
Wildfire risks and losses have increased over the last 100 years, associated with population expansion, land use and management practices, and global climate change. While there have been extensive efforts at modeling the probability and severity of wildfires, there have been fewer efforts to examine causal linkages from wildfires to impacts on ecological receptors and critical habitats. Bayesian networks are probabilistic tools for graphing and evaluating causal knowledge and uncertainties in complex systems that have seen only limited application to the quantitative assessment of ecological risks and impacts of wildfires. Here, we explore opportunities for using Bayesian networks for assessing wildfire impacts to ecological systems through levels of causal representation and scenario examination. Ultimately, Bayesian networks may facilitate understanding the factors contributing to ecological impacts, and the prediction and assessment of wildfire risks to ecosystems.